Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at J.P. Morgan, said the bank’s baseline scenario is for the U.S. to impose tariffs on all Chinese imports.
That means “real painful economic events in 2019,” he said at a conference last week in Hong Kong.
With the transformation into a “full-scale trade war, (the) impact will be much bigger,” Zhu said, adding that it could shave about one percentage point off of China’s economic growth.
Inwha Huh, executive vice president and global head of structured trade solutions at HSBC, said during the same conference, meanwhile, that companies have been too complacent about the risks.
“There’s been a denial factor in the market,” Huh said during a panel discussion.
Julius Baer’s Bonzon said that a resolution ahead of the Nov. 6 U.S. elections is unrealistic and the outlook beyond is unclear.
He said that the bank is now taking the “pragmatic view” that Trump will ultimately win re-election and his trade stance will remain in place well into the next decade.
“Most likely, we’re going to have a continuation of the current policies,” he said.
Agustin Carstens, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland and a former governor of Mexico’s central bank, said the global financial community is united in the view that the U.S. and China must find a solution.
“I think that those two countries, they have been made aware of what is at stake,” Carstens told CNBC on Monday, referring to the just-concluded International Monetary Fund and World Bank meeting in Bali, which he attended and where he said participants urged the world’s two largest economies to make progress.